C21AGVoices

Just one week after reports of Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales plunging, the housing market is signaling that autumn may fare better than did summer.

The number of homes under contract to sell rose 5 percent in July.

The data comes from the July Pending Home Sales Index, as published by the National Association of Realtors®. By definition, a “pending home sales” is a home that is sold, but not yet closed.

Historically, 80% of such homes close within 60 days which makes the Pending Home Sales Index an excellent, forward-looking indicator for the real estate market.

Indeed, the nationwide drop in home sales this summer was foreshadowed by the Pending Home Sales report.  The index dropped 30 percent in May. Then, two months later in July, it was shown that Existing Home Sales volume dropped 29 percent.

That’s a strong correlation.

Now, to be fair, the July Pending Home Sales Index is still relatively low; the second-lowest on record and well below last year’s numbers. But, the tick higher last month shows how housing may be stronger than than what the headlines report. In addition, in Philadelphia we suffer from the “Shore Effect” when people are more interested in getting to their weekends at the shore than they are in looking at or making offers on properties. Typically July and August are a slower period for sales than the September to November window.

It appears that buyers in Philadelphia took advantage of rising inventory, cheap financing, and stagnant prices, and pushed the market forward. We should expect similarly promising numbers when September’s Existing Home Sales data is released.